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1.
Lancet Microbe ; 4(6): e397-e408, 2023 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2294174

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Despite circumstantial evidence for aerosol and fomite spread of SARS-CoV-2, empirical data linking either pathway with transmission are scarce. Here we aimed to assess whether the presence of SARS-CoV-2 on frequently-touched surfaces and residents' hands was a predictor of SARS-CoV-2 household transmission. METHODS: In this longitudinal cohort study, during the pre-alpha (September to December, 2020) and alpha (B.1.1.7; December, 2020, to April, 2021) SARS-CoV-2 variant waves, we prospectively recruited contacts from households exposed to newly diagnosed COVID-19 primary cases, in London, UK. To maximally capture transmission events, contacts were recruited regardless of symptom status and serially tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection by RT-PCR on upper respiratory tract (URT) samples and, in a subcohort, by serial serology. Contacts' hands, primary cases' hands, and frequently-touched surface-samples from communal areas were tested for SARS-CoV-2 RNA. SARS-CoV-2 URT isolates from 25 primary case-contact pairs underwent whole-genome sequencing (WGS). FINDINGS: From Aug 1, 2020, until March 31, 2021, 620 contacts of PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2-infected primary cases were recruited. 414 household contacts (from 279 households) with available serial URT PCR results were analysed in the full household contacts' cohort, and of those, 134 contacts with available longitudinal serology data and not vaccinated pre-enrolment were analysed in the serology subcohort. Household infection rate was 28·4% (95% CI 20·8-37·5) for pre-alpha-exposed contacts and 51·8% (42·5-61·0) for alpha-exposed contacts (p=0·0047). Primary cases' URT RNA viral load did not correlate with transmission, but was associated with detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA on their hands (p=0·031). SARS-CoV-2 detected on primary cases' hands, in turn, predicted contacts' risk of infection (adjusted relative risk [aRR]=1·70 [95% CI 1·24-2·31]), as did SARS-CoV-2 RNA presence on household surfaces (aRR=1·66 [1·09-2·55]) and contacts' hands (aRR=2·06 [1·57-2·69]). In six contacts with an initial negative URT PCR result, hand-swab (n=3) and household surface-swab (n=3) PCR positivity preceded URT PCR positivity. WGS corroborated household transmission. INTERPRETATION: Presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA on primary cases' and contacts' hands and on frequently-touched household surfaces associates with transmission, identifying these as potential vectors for spread in households. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Respiratory Infections, Medical Research Council.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humans , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/epidemiology , Prospective Studies , RNA, Viral/genetics , Longitudinal Studies , Risk Factors , Cohort Studies
2.
Journal of infection and public health ; 2023.
Article in English | EuropePMC | ID: covidwho-2288881

ABSTRACT

Background Millions of COVID-19 pediatric survivors are facing the risk of long COVID after recovery from acute COVID-19. The primary objective of this study was to systematically review the available literature and determine the pooled prevalence of, and risk factors for long COVID among the pediatric survivors. Methods Studies that assessed the prevalence of, or risk factors associated with long COVID among pediatric COVID-19 survivors were systematically searched in PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, medRxiv and bioRxiv up to December 11th, 2022. Random effects model was performed to estimate the pooled prevalence of long COVID among pediatric COVID-19 patients. Subgroup analyses and meta-regression on the estimated prevalence of long COVID were performed by stratification with follow-up duration, mean age, sex ratio, percentage of multisystem inflammatory syndrome, hospitalization rate at baseline, and percentage of severe illness. Results Based on 40 studies with 12,424 individuals, the pooled prevalence of any long COVID was 23.36% ([95% CI 15.27-32.53]). The generalized symptom (19.57%, [95% CI 9.85-31.52]) was reported most commonly, followed by respiratory (14.76%, [95% CI 7.22-24.27]), neurologic (13.51%, [95% CI 6.52-22.40]), and psychiatric (12.30%, [95% CI 5.38-21.37]). Dyspnoea (22.75%, [95% CI 9.38-39.54]), fatigue (20.22%, [95% CI 9.19-34.09]), and headache (15.88%, [95% CI 6.85-27.57]) were most widely reported specific symptoms. The prevalence of any symptom during 3-6, 6-12, and >12 months were 26.41% ([95% CI 14.33-40.59]), 20.64% ([95% CI 17.06-24.46]), and 14.89% ([95% CI 6.09-26.51]), respectively. Individuals with aged over ten years, multisystem inflammatory syndrome, or had severe clinical symptoms exhibited higher prevalence of long COVID in multi-systems. Factors such as older age, female, poor physical or mental health, or had severe infection or more symptoms were more likely to have long COVID in pediatric survivors. Conclusions Nearly one quarter of pediatric survivors suffered multisystem long COVID, even at 1 year after infection. Ongoing monitoring, comprehensive prevention and intervention is warranted for pediatric survivors, especially for individuals with high risk factors.

3.
J Infect Public Health ; 16(5): 660-672, 2023 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2288882

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Millions of COVID-19 pediatric survivors are facing the risk of long COVID after recovery from acute COVID-19. The primary objective of this study was to systematically review the available literature and determine the pooled prevalence of, and risk factors for long COVID among the pediatric survivors. METHODS: Studies that assessed the prevalence of, or risk factors associated with long COVID among pediatric COVID-19 survivors were systematically searched in PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library up to December 11th, 2022. Random effects model was performed to estimate the pooled prevalence of long COVID among pediatric COVID-19 patients. Subgroup analyses and meta-regression on the estimated prevalence of long COVID were performed by stratification with follow-up duration, mean age, sex ratio, percentage of multisystem inflammatory syndrome, hospitalization rate at baseline, and percentage of severe illness. RESULTS: Based on 40 studies with 12,424 individuals, the pooled prevalence of any long COVID was 23.36 % ([95 % CI 15.27-32.53]). The generalized symptom (19.57 %, [95 % CI 9.85-31.52]) was reported most commonly, followed by respiratory (14.76 %, [95 % CI 7.22-24.27]), neurologic (13.51 %, [95 % CI 6.52-22.40]), and psychiatric (12.30 %, [95% CI 5.38-21.37]). Dyspnea (22.75 %, [95% CI 9.38-39.54]), fatigue (20.22 %, [95% CI 9.19-34.09]), and headache (15.88 %, [95 % CI 6.85-27.57]) were most widely reported specific symptoms. The prevalence of any symptom during 3-6, 6-12, and> 12 months were 26.41 % ([95 % CI 14.33-40.59]), 20.64 % ([95 % CI 17.06-24.46]), and 14.89 % ([95 % CI 6.09-26.51]), respectively. Individuals with aged over ten years, multisystem inflammatory syndrome, or had severe clinical symptoms exhibited higher prevalence of long COVID in multi-systems. Factors such as older age, female, poor physical or mental health, or had severe infection or more symptoms were more likely to have long COVID in pediatric survivors. CONCLUSIONS: Nearly one quarter of pediatric survivors suffered multisystem long COVID, even at 1 year after infection. Ongoing monitoring, comprehensive prevention and intervention is warranted for pediatric survivors, especially for individuals with high risk factors.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Adolescent , Aged , Child , Female , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , Post-Acute COVID-19 Syndrome , Prevalence , Risk Factors
4.
Mol Psychiatry ; 2022 Jun 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2246686

ABSTRACT

The long-term physical and mental sequelae of COVID-19 are a growing public health concern, yet there is considerable uncertainty about their prevalence, persistence and predictors. We conducted a comprehensive, up-to-date meta-analysis of survivors' health consequences and sequelae for COVID-19. PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library were searched through Sep 30th, 2021. Observational studies that reported the prevalence of sequelae of COVID-19 were included. Two reviewers independently undertook the data extraction and quality assessment. Of the 36,625 records identified, a total of 151 studies were included involving 1,285,407 participants from thirty-two countries. At least one sequelae symptom occurred in 50.1% (95% CI 45.4-54.8) of COVID-19 survivors for up to 12 months after infection. The most common investigation findings included abnormalities on lung CT (56.9%, 95% CI 46.2-67.3) and abnormal pulmonary function tests (45.6%, 95% CI 36.3-55.0), followed by generalized symptoms, such as fatigue (28.7%, 95% CI 21.0-37.0), psychiatric symptoms (19.7%, 95% CI 16.1-23.6) mainly depression (18.3%, 95% CI 13.3-23.8) and PTSD (17.9%, 95% CI 11.6-25.3), and neurological symptoms (18.7%, 95% CI 16.2-21.4), such as cognitive deficits (19.7%, 95% CI 8.8-33.4) and memory impairment (17.5%, 95% CI 8.1-29.6). Subgroup analysis showed that participants with a higher risk of long-term sequelae were older, mostly male, living in a high-income country, with more severe status at acute infection. Individuals with severe infection suffered more from PTSD, sleep disturbance, cognitive deficits, concentration impairment, and gustatory dysfunction. Survivors with mild infection had high burden of anxiety and memory impairment after recovery. Our findings suggest that after recovery from acute COVID-19, half of survivors still have a high burden of either physical or mental sequelae up to at least 12 months. It is important to provide urgent and appropriate prevention and intervention management to preclude persistent or emerging long-term sequelae and to promote the physical and psychiatric wellbeing of COVID-19 survivors.

5.
Lancet Respir Med ; 10(11): 1061-1073, 2022 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2106219

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Knowledge of the window of SARS-CoV-2 infectiousness is crucial in developing policies to curb transmission. Mathematical modelling based on scarce empirical evidence and key assumptions has driven isolation and testing policy, but real-world data are needed. We aimed to characterise infectiousness across the full course of infection in a real-world community setting. METHODS: The Assessment of Transmission and Contagiousness of COVID-19 in Contacts (ATACCC) study was a UK prospective, longitudinal, community cohort of contacts of newly diagnosed, PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 index cases. Household and non-household exposed contacts aged 5 years or older were eligible for recruitment if they could provide informed consent and agree to self-swabbing of the upper respiratory tract. The primary objective was to define the window of SARS-CoV-2 infectiousness and its temporal correlation with symptom onset. We quantified viral RNA load by RT-PCR and infectious viral shedding by enumerating cultivable virus daily across the course of infection. Participants completed a daily diary to track the emergence of symptoms. Outcomes were assessed with empirical data and a phenomenological Bayesian hierarchical model. FINDINGS: Between Sept 13, 2020, and March 31, 2021, we enrolled 393 contacts from 327 households (the SARS-CoV-2 pre-alpha and alpha variant waves); and between May 24, 2021, and Oct 28, 2021, we enrolled 345 contacts from 215 households (the delta variant wave). 173 of these 738 contacts were PCR positive for more than one timepoint, 57 of which were at the start of infection and comprised the final study population. The onset and end of infectious viral shedding were captured in 42 cases and the median duration of infectiousness was 5 (IQR 3-7) days. Although 24 (63%) of 38 cases had PCR-detectable virus before symptom onset, only seven (20%) of 35 shed infectious virus presymptomatically. Symptom onset was a median of 3 days before both peak viral RNA and peak infectious viral load (viral RNA IQR 3-5 days, n=38; plaque-forming units IQR 3-6 days, n=35). Notably, 22 (65%) of 34 cases and eight (24%) of 34 cases continued to shed infectious virus 5 days and 7 days post-symptom onset, respectively (survival probabilities 67% and 35%). Correlation of lateral flow device (LFD) results with infectious viral shedding was poor during the viral growth phase (sensitivity 67% [95% CI 59-75]), but high during the decline phase (92% [86-96]). Infectious virus kinetic modelling suggested that the initial rate of viral replication determines the course of infection and infectiousness. INTERPRETATION: Less than a quarter of COVID-19 cases shed infectious virus before symptom onset; under a crude 5-day self-isolation period from symptom onset, two-thirds of cases released into the community would still be infectious, but with reduced infectious viral shedding. Our findings support a role for LFDs to safely accelerate deisolation but not for early diagnosis, unless used daily. These high-resolution, community-based data provide evidence to inform infection control guidance. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2 , RNA, Viral , Cohort Studies , Prospective Studies , Bayes Theorem
6.
Thorax ; 2022 Jul 27.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1962381

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: We examine differences in posthospitalisation outcomes, and health system resource use, for patients hospitalised with COVID-19 during the UK's first pandemic wave in 2020, and influenza during 2018 and 2019. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used routinely collected primary and secondary care data. Outcomes, measured for 90 days follow-up after discharge were length of stay in hospital, mortality, emergency readmission and primary care activity. RESULTS: The study included 5132 patients admitted to hospital as an emergency, with COVID-19 and influenza cohorts comprising 3799 and 1333 patients respectively. Patients in the COVID-19 cohort were more likely to stay in hospital longer than 10 days (OR 3.91, 95% CI 3.14 to 4.65); and more likely to die in hospital (OR 11.85, 95% CI 8.58 to 16.86) and within 90 days of discharge (OR 7.92, 95% CI 6.20 to 10.25). For those who survived, rates of emergency readmission within 90 days were comparable between COVID-19 and influenza cohorts (OR 1.07, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.29), while primary care activity was greater among the COVID-19 cohort (incidence rate ratio 1.30, 95% CI 1.23 to 1.37). CONCLUSIONS: Patients admitted for COVID-19 were more likely to die, more likely to stay in hospital for over 10 days and interact more with primary care after discharge, than patients admitted for influenza. However, readmission rates were similar for both groups. These findings, while situated in the context of the first wave of COVID-19, with the associated pressures on the health system, can inform health service planning for subsequent waves of COVID-19, and show that patients with COVID-19 interact more with healthcare services as well as having poorer outcomes than those with influenza.

7.
Lancet Respir Med ; 10(9): 851-862, 2022 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1805393

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: There are few evidence-based interventions for long COVID; however, holistic approaches supporting recovery are advocated. We assessed whether an online breathing and wellbeing programme improves health related quality-of-life (HRQoL) in people with persisting breathlessness following COVID-19. METHODS: We conducted a parallel-group, single-blind, randomised controlled trial in patients who had been referred from one of 51 UK-based collaborating long COVID clinics. Eligible participants were aged 18 years or older; were recovering from COVID-19 with ongoing breathlessness, with or without anxiety, at least 4 weeks after symptom onset; had internet access with an appropriate device; and were deemed clinically suitable for participation by one of the collaborating COVID-19 clinics. Following clinical assessment, potential participants were given a unique online portal code. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to either immediate participation in the English National Opera (ENO) Breathe programme or to usual care. Randomisation was done by the research team using computer-generated block randomisation lists, with block size 10. The researcher responsible for randomisation was masked to responses. Participants in the ENO Breathe group participated in a 6-week online breathing and wellbeing programme, developed for people with long COVID experiencing breathlessness, focusing on breathing retraining using singing techniques. Those in the deferred group received usual care until they exited the trial. The primary outcome, assessed in the intention-to-treat population, was change in HRQoL, assessed using the RAND 36-item short form survey instrument mental health composite (MHC) and physical health composite (PHC) scores. Secondary outcome measures were the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease assessment test score, visual analogue scales (VAS) for breathlessness, and scores on the dyspnoea-12, the generalised anxiety disorder 7-item scale, and the short form-6D. A thematic analysis exploring participant experience was also conducted using qualitative data from focus groups, survey responses, and email correspondence. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04830033. FINDINGS: Between April 22 and May 25, 2021, 158 participants were recruited and randomly assigned. Of these, eight (5%) individuals were excluded and 150 participants were allocated to a treatment group (74 in the ENO Breathe group and 76 in the usual care group). Compared with usual care, ENO Breathe was associated with an improvement in MHC score (regression coefficient 2·42 [95% CI 0·03 to 4·80]; p=0·047), but not PHC score (0·60 [-1·33 to 2·52]; p=0·54). VAS for breathlessness (running) favoured ENO Breathe participation (-10·48 [-17·23 to -3·73]; p=0·0026). No other statistically significant between-group differences in secondary outcomes were observed. One minor self-limiting adverse event was reported by a participant in the ENO Breathe group who felt dizzy using a computer for extended periods. Thematic analysis of ENO Breathe participant experience identified three key themes: (1) improvements in symptoms; (2) feeling that the programme was complementary to standard care; and (3) the particular suitability of singing and music to address their needs. INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that an online breathing and wellbeing programme can improve the mental component of HRQoL and elements of breathlessness in people with persisting symptoms after COVID-19. Mind-body and music-based approaches, including practical, enjoyable, symptom-management techniques might have a role supporting recovery. FUNDING: Imperial College London.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , COVID-19/complications , Dyspnea/etiology , Dyspnea/therapy , Humans , Quality of Life , Single-Blind Method , Post-Acute COVID-19 Syndrome
8.
BMJ ; 376: e066871, 2022 02 23.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1707375

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the proportion of lateral flow tests (LFTs) that produce negative results in those with a high risk of infectiousness from SARS-CoV-2, to investigate the impact of the stage and severity of disease, and to compare predictions made by influential mathematical models with findings of empirical studies. DESIGN: Linked data analysis combining empirical evidence of the accuracy of the Innova LFT, the probability of positive viral culture or transmission to secondary cases, and the distribution of viral loads of SARS-CoV-2 in individuals in different settings. SETTING: Testing of individuals with symptoms attending NHS Test-and-Trace centres across the UK, residents without symptoms attending municipal mass testing centres in Liverpool, and students without symptoms screened at the University of Birmingham. PARTICIPANTS: Evidence for the sensitivity of the Innova LFT, based on 70 individuals with SARS-CoV-2 and LFT results. Infectiousness was based on viral culture rates on 246 samples (176 people with SARS-CoV-2) and secondary cases among 2 474 066 contacts; distributions of cycle threshold (Ct) values from 231 497 index individuals attending NHS Test-and-Trace centres; 70 people with SARS-CoV-2 detected in Liverpool and 62 people with SARS-CoV-2 in Birmingham (54 imputed). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The predicted proportions who were missed by LFT and viral culture positive and missed by LFT and sources of secondary cases, in each of the three settings. Predictions were compared with those made by mathematical models. RESULTS: The analysis predicted that of those with a viral culture positive result, Innova would miss 20% attending an NHS Test-and-Trace centre, 29% without symptoms attending municipal mass testing, and 81% attending university screen testing without symptoms, along with 38%, 47%, and 90% of sources of secondary cases. In comparison, two mathematical models underestimated the numbers of missed infectious individuals (8%, 10%, and 32% in the three settings for one model, whereas the assumptions from the second model made it impossible to miss an infectious individual). Owing to the paucity of usable data, the inputs to the analyses are from limited sources. CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of infectious people with SARS-CoV-2 missed by LFTs is substantial enough to be of clinical importance. The proportion missed varied between settings because of different viral load distributions and is likely to be highest in those without symptoms. Key models have substantially overestimated the sensitivity of LFTs compared with empirical data. An urgent need exists for additional robust well designed and reported empirical studies from intended use settings to inform evidence based policy.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Serological Testing/standards , COVID-19/epidemiology , Antibodies, Viral/blood , COVID-19/diagnosis , False Negative Reactions , False Positive Reactions , Humans , Pandemics , Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction/standards , SARS-CoV-2 , Sensitivity and Specificity , Viral Load
9.
Nat Commun ; 13(1): 80, 2022 01 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1616982

ABSTRACT

Cross-reactive immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 have been observed in pre-pandemic cohorts and proposed to contribute to host protection. Here we assess 52 COVID-19 household contacts to capture immune responses at the earliest timepoints after SARS-CoV-2 exposure. Using a dual cytokine FLISpot assay on peripheral blood mononuclear cells, we enumerate the frequency of T cells specific for spike, nucleocapsid, membrane, envelope and ORF1 SARS-CoV-2 epitopes that cross-react with human endemic coronaviruses. We observe higher frequencies of cross-reactive (p = 0.0139), and nucleocapsid-specific (p = 0.0355) IL-2-secreting memory T cells in contacts who remained PCR-negative despite exposure (n = 26), when compared with those who convert to PCR-positive (n = 26); no significant difference in the frequency of responses to spike is observed, hinting at a limited protective function of spike-cross-reactive T cells. Our results are thus consistent with pre-existing non-spike cross-reactive memory T cells protecting SARS-CoV-2-naïve contacts from infection, thereby supporting the inclusion of non-spike antigens in second-generation vaccines.


Subject(s)
Antibodies, Viral/immunology , COVID-19/immunology , Contact Tracing/methods , Cross Reactions/immunology , Memory T Cells/immunology , SARS-CoV-2/immunology , Adult , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/virology , Coronavirus/immunology , Coronavirus/physiology , Epitopes, T-Lymphocyte/immunology , Female , Humans , Male , Memory T Cells/metabolism , Memory T Cells/virology , Middle Aged , Pandemics/prevention & control , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , SARS-CoV-2/physiology , Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus/genetics , Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus/immunology , Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus/metabolism , Viral Proteins/genetics , Viral Proteins/immunology , Viral Proteins/metabolism , Young Adult
10.
Lancet Infect Dis ; 22(2): 183-195, 2022 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1598157

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant is highly transmissible and spreading globally, including in populations with high vaccination rates. We aimed to investigate transmission and viral load kinetics in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals with mild delta variant infection in the community. METHODS: Between Sept 13, 2020, and Sept 15, 2021, 602 community contacts (identified via the UK contract-tracing system) of 471 UK COVID-19 index cases were recruited to the Assessment of Transmission and Contagiousness of COVID-19 in Contacts cohort study and contributed 8145 upper respiratory tract samples from daily sampling for up to 20 days. Household and non-household exposed contacts aged 5 years or older were eligible for recruitment if they could provide informed consent and agree to self-swabbing of the upper respiratory tract. We analysed transmission risk by vaccination status for 231 contacts exposed to 162 epidemiologically linked delta variant-infected index cases. We compared viral load trajectories from fully vaccinated individuals with delta infection (n=29) with unvaccinated individuals with delta (n=16), alpha (B.1.1.7; n=39), and pre-alpha (n=49) infections. Primary outcomes for the epidemiological analysis were to assess the secondary attack rate (SAR) in household contacts stratified by contact vaccination status and the index cases' vaccination status. Primary outcomes for the viral load kinetics analysis were to detect differences in the peak viral load, viral growth rate, and viral decline rate between participants according to SARS-CoV-2 variant and vaccination status. FINDINGS: The SAR in household contacts exposed to the delta variant was 25% (95% CI 18-33) for fully vaccinated individuals compared with 38% (24-53) in unvaccinated individuals. The median time between second vaccine dose and study recruitment in fully vaccinated contacts was longer for infected individuals (median 101 days [IQR 74-120]) than for uninfected individuals (64 days [32-97], p=0·001). SAR among household contacts exposed to fully vaccinated index cases was similar to household contacts exposed to unvaccinated index cases (25% [95% CI 15-35] for vaccinated vs 23% [15-31] for unvaccinated). 12 (39%) of 31 infections in fully vaccinated household contacts arose from fully vaccinated epidemiologically linked index cases, further confirmed by genomic and virological analysis in three index case-contact pairs. Although peak viral load did not differ by vaccination status or variant type, it increased modestly with age (difference of 0·39 [95% credible interval -0·03 to 0·79] in peak log10 viral load per mL between those aged 10 years and 50 years). Fully vaccinated individuals with delta variant infection had a faster (posterior probability >0·84) mean rate of viral load decline (0·95 log10 copies per mL per day) than did unvaccinated individuals with pre-alpha (0·69), alpha (0·82), or delta (0·79) variant infections. Within individuals, faster viral load growth was correlated with higher peak viral load (correlation 0·42 [95% credible interval 0·13 to 0·65]) and slower decline (-0·44 [-0·67 to -0·18]). INTERPRETATION: Vaccination reduces the risk of delta variant infection and accelerates viral clearance. Nonetheless, fully vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infections have peak viral load similar to unvaccinated cases and can efficiently transmit infection in household settings, including to fully vaccinated contacts. Host-virus interactions early in infection may shape the entire viral trajectory. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/transmission , COVID-19/virology , SARS-CoV-2/physiology , Viral Load/physiology , Adult , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Cohort Studies , England/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Kinetics , Longitudinal Studies , Male , Middle Aged , Prospective Studies , United Kingdom/epidemiology , Vaccination , Vaccination Coverage
12.
Eur Respir J ; 60(1)2022 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1538052

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The success of case isolation and contact tracing for the control of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission depends on the accuracy and speed of case identification. We assessed whether inclusion of additional symptoms alongside three canonical symptoms (CS), i.e. fever, cough and loss or change in smell or taste, could improve case definitions and accelerate case identification in SARS-CoV-2 contacts. METHODS: Two prospective longitudinal London (UK)-based cohorts of community SARS-CoV-2 contacts, recruited within 5 days of exposure, provided independent training and test datasets. Infected and uninfected contacts completed daily symptom diaries from the earliest possible time-points. Diagnostic information gained by adding symptoms to the CS was quantified using likelihood ratios and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Improvements in sensitivity and time to detection were compared with penalties in terms of specificity and number needed to test. RESULTS: Of 529 contacts within two cohorts, 164 (31%) developed PCR-confirmed infection and 365 (69%) remained uninfected. In the training dataset (n=168), 29% of infected contacts did not report the CS. Four symptoms (sore throat, muscle aches, headache and appetite loss) were identified as early-predictors (EP) which added diagnostic value to the CS. The broadened symptom criterion "≥1 of the CS, or ≥2 of the EP" identified PCR-positive contacts in the test dataset on average 2 days earlier after exposure (p=0.07) than "≥1 of the CS", with only modest reduction in specificity (5.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Broadening symptom criteria to include individuals with at least two of muscle aches, headache, appetite loss and sore throat identifies more infections and reduces time to detection, providing greater opportunities to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pharyngitis , COVID-19/diagnosis , Headache/diagnosis , Humans , Pain , Pharyngitis/diagnosis , Prospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2
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